The Goals not only reflect global justice and human rights—they are also vital to international and national security and stability, as emphasized by the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change. Poor and hungry societies are much more likely than high-income societies to fall into conflict over scarce vital resources, such as watering holes and arable land—and over scarce natural resources, such as oil, diamonds, and timber. Many world leaders in recent years have rightly stressed the powerful relationship between poverty reduction and global security (box 2). Achieving the Millennium Development Goals should therefore be placed centrally in international efforts to end violent conflict, instability, and terrorism. As the High-Level Panel recommends, countries that aspire to global leadership through permanent membership on the UN Security Council have a special responsibility to promote the Goals and to fulfill international commitments to official development assistance and other kinds of support vital for achieving them. We endorse the Panel's recommended criterion of 0.7 percent of GNP in official donor assistance for developed countries aspiring to permanent membership.
Poverty increases the risks of conflict through multiple paths. Poor countries are more likely to have weak governments, making it easier for would-be rebels to grab land and vital resources. Resource scarcity can provoke population migrations and displacements that result in conflicts between social groups, as in Darfur, Sudan, in the wake of diminishing rainfall. Without productive alternatives, young people may turn to violence for material gain, or feel a sense of hopelessness, despair, and rage. Poor farmers who lack basic infrastructure and access to agricultural markets may turn in desperation to narcotics production and trade, such as growing poppy in Afghanistan or coca in the Andes. Many slums are controlled by gangs of drug traffickers and traders, who create a vicious cycle of insecurity and poverty. The lack of economically viable options other than criminal activity creates the seedbed of -instability—and increases the potential for violence.
Box 2: Poverty reduction and global security
Many world leaders have stressed the fact that the fight for global security—to stop war, internal violence, terror, and other ills of profound instability—requires success in the battle against poverty as well. Here are some of their statements, emphasizing the broad range of agreement on this vital point.
King Abdullah of Jordan, January 23, 2004
“Opportunity is a powerful force in giving people a stake in a peaceful future. It is in our hands to create a global growth economy, access to education and technology, and, most important, justice, to show young people that ours is a world of fairness, openness, and hope. The Millennium Development Goals need to be reinforced with new benchmarks for assessing progress, for ensuring better and fairer trade, and for forging new global links.”
Prime Minister Tony Blair of the United Kingdom, October 7, 2004
“The rest of the world cannot stand by—because we cannot afford to, because what happens in Africa affects and will affect the rest of the world. Poverty and instability leads to weak states which can become havens for terrorists and other criminals.”
President George W. Bush of the United States, March 14, 2002
“Poverty doesn't cause terrorism. Being poor doesn't make you a murderer. Most of the plotters of September 11th were raised in comfort. Yet persistent poverty and oppression can lead to hopelessness and despair. And when governments fail to meet the most basic needs of their people, these failed states can become havens for terror.
“Poverty prevents governments from controlling their borders, policing their territory, and enforcing their laws. Development provides the resources to build hope and prosperity, and security.... Successful development also requires citizens who are literate, who are healthy, and prepared and able to work. Development assistance can help poor nations meet these education and health care needs.”
President Jacques Chirac of France, May 26, 2004
“The world economy as a whole is held back when the lack of development condemns entire regions to poverty and a seeming lack of prospects. It is also a political necessity, because the security and stability of the world are under threat from the reactions of populations that are deprived of their basic rights.”
President Lula da Silva of Brazil, September 21, 2004
“The path to lasting peace must encompass a new political and economic international order, one that extends to all countries real opportunities for economic and social development.”
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi of Japan, September 21, 2004
“The protection and empowerment of individuals and communities is the foundation of international peace and security…. There will be no stability and prosperity in the world unless the issues of Africa are resolved…. Peace and security, economic and social issues are increasingly intertwined.”
President Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania, January 10, 2003
“We should address the situations and factors that have the potential to sow terrorism, namely, poverty, denial, deprivation, oppression, and injustice.”
President Olusagun Obasanjo of Nigeria, September 23, 2004
“Our quest for global peace and security will prove unsuccessful unless we intensify international cooperation for development and the reduction of poverty.”
Chancellor Gerhard Schröder of Germany, 2001, Program of Action 2015
“Extreme poverty, growing inequality between countries, but also within countries themselves, are great challenges of our times, because they are a breeding ground for instability and conflict. So reducing worldwide poverty is, not least, essential to safeguarding peace and security.”
Research suggests a strong causal impact of poverty and adverse income shocks on the onset of conflict. On average a negative economic growth shock of 5 percentage points increases civil war risks by about 50 percent. And the risk of violent civil conflict declines steadily as national incomes increase ( figure 1 ). While violent conflicts surely result from a combination of factors, poverty creates conditions for igniting and sustaining conflict. The implications are twofold: investing in development is especially important to reduce the probability of conflict, and development strategies should take into consideration their possible effects on reducing the risk of conflict—or inadvertently increasing it. |
